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Downgrade to Neutral
■ We downgrade Cosmo to Neutral from Outperform and cut our Target
price to SFr140 from SFr200.
■ We lower 2018E revenue by 21% and 2019-2021E by an average 24%.
We have revisited our revenue and earnings expectations in detail following
a rich period of news flow for the company. Key changes include: (i) lowering
Lialda sales on entry of further generics sooner than prior expectations, (ii)
lowering Uceris royalties following a sales slow-down in 2017 and potential
generic entry after Teva's recent ANDA win, and (iii) reducing near-term
Eleview revenue after issues setting up new hospital accounts.
■ A lack of catalysts before potential methylene blue MMX approval on 21
May: Cosmo’s pipeline is advancing in line with expectations with FDA's
recent acceptance of the methylene blue MMX filing, and the granting of
QIDP/fast-track designation for rifamycin SV MMX. However, until methylene
blue MMX's PDUFA on 21 May, we do not see any significant upcoming
catalysts to drive momentum and the share price.
■ Neutral until US execution is clearer. We continue to see methylene blue
MMX as a practice-changing product. However, initial Eleview sales have
been slower than anticipated despite the US commercial unit (Aries) being
run by ex-Salix staff with a proven track record selling GI products. We need
to see a meaningful inflection in Eleview sales before we can become more
confident Aries can manage a successful launch of methylene blue MMX.
■ Catalysts and Risks: 4Q17: Methylene Blue MMX EU filing for use in
colonoscopies and rifamycin MMX FDA filing for traveller’s diarrhea, 2Q18:
Methylene Blue MMX FDA decision (21st May).
■ Valuation: We have brought our Target Price down in line with our
PharmaValues equity NPV of SFr140. Cosmo trades on an EV/NPV of 0.97x
vs. Global specialty peers of 1.00x.